A convenient statistical coincidence shows just how slow US economic recovery is in this business cycle compared to previous ones. The new US GDP data for the 1st quarter of 2012 is for the 17th quarter since the peak of the previous business cycle in the 4th quarter of 2007. In all US business cycles since 1973 by the 17th quarter in the cycle the economy had expanded by almost exactly 10.5% – as can be seen in the chart. In this cycle US growth since the previous peak has been only 1.3%. That is the US economy has been growing at only 12.6%, one eighth, of its rate in previous business cycles.
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27 April 2012
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John Ross
- Is Senior Fellow at Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies, Renmin University of China
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