国际金融危机下的中国China in the International Financial Crisis

在《 中国金融 》的访谈

本博客的作者在《 中国金融》的访谈中对中国的发展政策，人民币汇率问题和其他方面发表了观点。感兴趣的读者可以在此找到访谈的详细内容。

扩展中的美国贸易逆差

最新的美国贸易数据表明美国依旧继续着贸易逆差的趋势，而且这种趋势自去年以来一直在发展。这些都显示在插图1（跟踪每月美国贸易平衡数据）和插图2（每月数据按照每三个月的平均来计算，为了尽量避免短期波动的影响）。以上两个插图都表明了自从2009年三月以来，美国贸易逆差显著增长的趋势已经发生了。这些都使得自2008年七月美国金融危机产生巨大影响之后做出的改进发生了逆转。

从图可知，美国的月贸易逆差值在2009年五月份达到了最小值---258亿美元。在2010年一月份增长到了397亿美元。从三个月的平均值来看，美国的贸易逆差值在2009年六月达到了270亿美元的最小值。到了2010年的二月份，它已经增长到了388亿美元。

美国贸易逆差持续增长的基本趋势在美国经济开始走出经济衰退后已经显而易见了。

图1

图2

The widening US trade deficit

The latest US trade figures continue the trend this blog has been analysing since last year of the widening of the US trade deficit. This is shown in Figure 1, which charts monthly data for the US balance of trade, and Figure 2 which shows the monthly data calculated as a three month moving average in order to remove the effect of purely short term fluctuations. Both show that since May 2009 a clear and significant trend of widening of the US trade deficit has occurred - reversing the earlier improvement that took place after the first impact on US trade of the financial crisis following July 2008.

Taking figures, the monthly US trade deficit reached its narrowest point at $25.8 billion in May 2009. It widened to $39.7 billion by January 2010.Taking a three monthly moving average the monthly US trade deficit reached its narrowest point at $27.0 billion in June 2009. By February 2010 it had widened to $38.8 billion.

The fundamental trend to a continued widening of the US trade gap as its economy starts to recover from  recession is clear.

Figure 1

Figure 2

中国三月份贸易逆差已经证实了其经济复苏取决于国内需求。

这篇博文指出了那些根本不正确的观点，诸如有人宣称中国从国际金融危机中复苏是取决于其激增的出口，或者取决于其贸易顺差。中国的贸易顺差在那段时期已经持续收缩。

显著的是，中国的贸易逆差在三月份有72亿美元，这显然不是单独一个月的数据，尽管数据可能是波动的，但是证实了中国贸易顺差减少的趋势。这些都显示在插图1（中国每月贸易平衡的数据）和插图2（把每月数值按照每三个月的平均值来统计以减少短期波动）。在其中任何一个，中国贸易顺差骤然下跌的趋势都得到证明。2010年三月份的顺差值，按照三个月的平均值为基础，相比去年同期的208亿美元，今年为48亿美元。

中国贸易逆差下降的原因也很清楚。中国的进口一直在快速上升。中国在本次金融危机之前的出口和进口水平在2008年的七月达到了顶峰。在2010年三月，中国的出口水平仍然比金融危机前低18%，进口则高了7%。因此，事实上，中国经济在2009年以GDP 8.7%的增长速度快速复苏，既不是依靠大量的出口，因为出口水平依然低于危机前水平；也不是依靠贸易顺差的增长，因为它非常明显的收缩了---今年第一季度值相比去年同期水平低了77%。 

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China’s March trade deficit confirms that its economic recovery is based on domestic demand

Since summer 2009 this blog has been regularly pointing out the factual inaccuracy of those who claimed that China’s economic recovery from the international financial crisis was based on a surge in its exports and/or its trade surplus. China's trade surplus has consistently shrunk throughout that period.

The significance of China now running a $7.2 billion trade deficit in March is evidently not in a single month’s figures, which can be erratic, but in confirming this trend of China's declining trade surplus. This is shown in Figure 1, which charts China's monthly trade balance. Figure 2 shows the monthly balance on the basis of a three month moving average – in order to smooth out short term fluctuations. In either case the sharp downward trend of China's trade surplus is evident.In March 2010 the monthly surplus, on the basis of a three month moving average, was $4.8 billion compared to $20.8 billion for the same period in the previous year.

The basis of the fall in China’s trade deficit is also clear. China's imports have been rising rapidly. China’s pre-crisis exports and imports both peaked in July 2008. While by March 2010 exports were still 18% below the pre-crisis peak China’s imports were 7% above it. Therefore, simply as a matter of fact, China’s rapid economic recovery, with 8.7% GDP growth in 2009, has been based neither on a surge in exports, which have remained depressed below pre-crisis levels, nor on an increase in its trade surplus – which has shrunk dramatically and in the first three months of this year was 77% below its level in the same period a year ago.

It remains to be seen when or whether those who have been arguing China’s economic recovery was based on a rise in exports and/or a surging trade surplus will admit this is not correct.

Figure 1

 

Figure 2

中国能够达到GDP增速11.9%而未出现经济过热的原因解析

中国2010年一季度的GDP同比增长11.9%，其表现不可谓不出色。这不仅是迄今为止各主要经济体所能创下的最高增长率，同时也并未伴随无法令人接受的经济过热现象。

3月份CPI同比2.4%的涨幅严格控制在政府本年度设定的3%通胀目标之内。5.9%的PPI与其他国家相比也并没有太大差异。消费和投资增长均表现得十分强劲——城镇固定资产投资增长25.6%，社会消费品零售总额上涨17.9%。

就像中国国务院所指出的那样，通胀压力当然存在。但是，宏观经济基础数据表明，假设不再允许经济增长进一步提速，通胀压力也不会发展到不可控制的地步。

之所以预计中国当前增长率是与宏观经济稳定局面相匹配的，其关键原因就是中国的增量资本产出率——即每当实现1%的增长率，固定投资（在GDP中）的占比。中国的增量资本产出率在相当长的时间内一直相对稳定地保持在3.7左右——如图1所示，这是与美国和印度进行对比的数字。在将近20年的时间里，未曾发生过任何超出可控范围以外的宏观经济失衡状况——这就说明该比率与宏观经济基本面的稳定是相匹配的。由此看来，若希望保持11.9%的增长率，就需要占GDP44.0%的固定投资。

中方最后一次公布的固定投资数据是2008年的40.7%。然而有证据显示，自2009年GDP增长中断以来，经济领域固定投资的比率有进一步增加的趋势——大约占GDP的45%还要多。因此，这样的GDP投资水平应当可以维持11.9%的增长率，同时不会造成难以控制的宏观经济扭曲。

尽管如此，增长率的进一步显著加速很可能从根本上造成不稳定的失衡。例如，13%的增长率将需要占GDP48%还要多的固定投资——而这一水平已超出了中国的现状。

由此可给出以下宏观经济结论：在中国目前的增长率之下，一些具体的经济问题，例如房产泡沫现象严重等，将保持在可控范围之内。然而，如果经济出现进一步显著提速，这些问题将会变得无法控制。因此，采取紧缩手段，阻止GDP进一步加速，才是中国政府的明智之举。

图 1

Why China can achieve 11.9% GDP growth without unsustainable overheating

China's first quarter 2010 11.9% year on year GDP growth rate is a stellar performance. It is not only by far the highest growth rate of any major economy but it was not accompanied by intolerable overheating.

The 2.4% year on year consumer price inflation is within the tight 3.0% inflation target set by the government for the year. The 5.9% producer price inflation is not out of line with other countries. Both consumption and investment growth is strong - urban fixed asset investment was up 25.6% and retail sales up 17.9%.

There are of course inflationary pressures as China's State Council has pointed out. However the fundamental macro-economic data indicates that these inflationary pressures should not get out of control provided the economy is not allowed to accelerate further.

The crucial factor in estimating that China's current growth is compatible with macro-economic stability is China's Incremental Capital Output Ratio - that is the percentage of fixed investment correlated with a 1% growth rate. This for China has been fairly stable at around 3.7 for a prolonged period - this is shown in Figure 1 with a comparison to the US and India. During this nearly two decade period no uncontrollable macro-economic imbalances have occurred - indicating that this ratio is compatible with fundamental macro-economic stability. On that basis an 11.9% growth rate would require 44.0% of GDP fixed investment to sustain it.

The last published figure for fixed investment in China was 40.7% in 2008. It is evident, however, from the breakdown of GDP growth in 2009, that the percentage of fixed investment in the economy has increased further - probably to over 45% of GDP. This level of investment in GDP should therefore sustain an 11.9% growth rate without macro-economic distortions that could not be contained.

Significant further acceleration would, however, produce fundamentally destabilising imbalances. A 13% growth rate, for example, would require a percentage of fixed investment in the economy of over 48% of GDP - a level above China's.

The macroeconomic conclusion is therefore that at China's present rate of growth specific economic problems, such as the significant housing price bubble, will be containable. Significant further economic acceleration is, however, not containable and therefore the Chinese authorities are correct to have commenced tightening measures to prevent further acceleration.

Figure 1